ABCA Flood Outlook/ Water Safety - December 6, 2021

The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority issued the following Shoreline Conditions Statement: Flood Outlook/Water Safety message today at 10:00 a.m. for the Lakeshore municipalities.

Forecast for strong winds and high waves may cause flooding and erosion problems along the Lake Huron shoreline.

A low-pressure system currently passing though the Great Lakes region is forecasted to bring strong winds and resulting wave action to the Lake Huron shoreline over the next 24 hours. Winds will shift westerly this afternoon (Monday, December 6, 2021), strengthening to 50-55 kilometres (km) per hour, with peak gusts exceeding 80 km/hr. Winds will shift northwest and decrease slightly in strength overnight, but will remain strong into tomorrow morning (Tuesday, December 7, 2021). Strong and sustained winds will produce maximum wave heights in the range 3 to 4 metres, peaking this evening, before dissipating through the day tomorrow. 

Continued erosion of the lakeshore bluff and beach areas is expected. Combined with saturated ground conditions, there will be a heightened risk of bluff failures. 

Residents and municipal officials are reminded to stay well back from breaking waves and to stay away from top-of-bluff areas during and after the storm, in case there has been any movement of the lake bank. It is important to remember that there may be a delay between erosion at the toe (bottom) of the bluff and subsequent bluff failure.

This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, December 8, 2021, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.

Details also available at