ABCA Flood Outlook/Water Safety - December 10, 2021

Forecast for strong winds Saturday and into Sunday.

High waves may cause flooding and erosion problems along the Lake Huron shoreline.

A low-pressure system approaching the Great Lakes region is forecasted to bring strong winds and resulting wave action to the Lake Huron shoreline over the weekend. 

Winds will strengthen out of the southwest tomorrow morning (Saturday, December 11, 2021), with sustained wind speeds building to 50 kilometres (km) per hour, before shifting more westerly during the afternoon and increasing to 60 km/hr. Peak gusts with this event are expected to reach 90 km/hr. Winds will decrease steadily overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning, but will remain strong well into Sunday. This high wind event will begin to generate large waves along the Lake Huron shoreline tomorrow afternoon and, at its peak tomorrow evening, will be capable of producing waves in the range of 3-3.5 metres. Wave action will decrease slightly overnight and into Sunday but are expected to remain strong through most of the day Sunday.

Continued erosion of the lakeshore bluff and beach areas is expected. Combined with saturated ground conditions, there will be a heightened risk of bluff failures. 

Residents and municipal officials are reminded to stay well back from breaking waves and to stay away from top-of-bluff areas during and after the storm, in case there has been any movement of the lake bank. It is important to remember that there may be a delay between erosion at the toe (bottom) of the bluff and subsequent bluff failure.

This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Monday, December 13, 2021, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required. 

Details also available at